Category: 2024 National Election
How Accurate Was the 2024 Election Model?
Four months ago to this day, Partisan-Gravity released its final election model with some predictions attached. No doubt that this update makes for a pretty delayed post mortem. Even so, I feel it’s important to assess how things went with the model and to discuss the future. This is especially important as our political media… Read more
Final Predictions: 2024 Presidential Election
If you’ve followed the Partisan Gravity Presidential Election Forecast, then you know well that we’ve had this race categorized as a toss-up as the election has drawn closer. In fact, the race has been so close during the model’s duration that it has almost only depicted the race as a toss-up, only diverging from this… Read more
September 27 Forecast Update: Harris Above 59%
Be sure to read more in the Election Forecast! Read more
Presidential Forecast Updated for September 22
You can read more at our model link here. Read more
Forecast Updated for September 21
You can read it here! Today’s big update: the race is now “Lean Harris”. Read more
Forecast Updated for September 20
Read more here Read more
Forecast Updated for September 19
Link to today’s forecast There were a few tweaks made for this model run. First and foremost, there was a bug! Some of the weighted calculations weren’t applying correctly, meaning lower quality polls were having more influence than they should have. That has been fixed. There has been a change made to the Markov chains… Read more
September 16 Forecast Posted
September 15 was too, but it has already been replaced. Thanks for reading Partisan-Gravity! Election Forecast Read more
Presidential Forecast Model: Updated (Sep13) & New Page
Thanks for visiting Partisan-Gravity.com! The Presidential Election Forecast Model is now located at the Presidential Election Forecast page in the site header. This will help preserve blog posts for just that: blog posts and will provide a one-stop shop for forecast updates. You can view the forecast here and, as a sneak peak before you… Read more
2024 Presidential Forecast Update: September 12
What’s changed today? To be honest, very little. We have still barely seen any data come out since the debate. That makes sense. As we stated in our update yesterday, it will take days, or a couple of weeks even, to get some solid polling post-debate. Speaking of, if you’re looking for some coverage on… Read more