Author: Brian
2024 Presidential Forecast Update: September 12
What’s changed today? To be honest, very little. We have still barely seen any data come out since the debate. That makes sense. As we stated in our update yesterday, it will take days, or a couple of weeks even, to get some solid polling post-debate. Speaking of, if you’re looking for some coverage on… Read more
2024 Presidential Forecast Update: September 11
Welcome back to the Partisan-Gravity Presidential Forecast model. If you missed it, you can catch up on the models methodology here and yesterday’s update here. Today’s model update comes just hours after the Trump vs. Harris Presidential Debate in Philadelphia, PA. As we covered here at Partisan-Gravity, the debate featured something of a lopsided victory… Read more
Unpacking the Sep. 10 Presidential Debate
Who won the debate? Let’s cut right to the chase: it was a very good night for Harris and a very bad night for Trump. Harris won the debate and it seems as though the conventional wisdom is coalescing around that sentiment. In an unscientific, but still fun poll of undecided voters aired live on… Read more
2024 Presidential Forecast Update: September 10
A GOOD DAY FOR HARRIS Strong state-level polling drives a few-point surge in her chance of winning What changed in today’s model run? First off, thank you for visiting. If you missed it, we launched our Presidential Forecast model yesterday and, if you’re interested in the methodology, we talk a lot about our assumptions and… Read more
Introducing: National General Election Forecast
The 2024 Election is right around the corner. There are just 57 days until the general election, and ballots are going to be sent out imminently in North Carolina. In other words, the 2024 Presidential Election is here. If you’re following any of the major election forecasts, you’ve probably reviewed Nate Silver’s model, Split Ticket’s Presidential Ratings,… Read more