What’s changed today?
To be honest, very little. We have still barely seen any data come out since the debate. That makes sense. As we stated in our update yesterday, it will take days, or a couple of weeks even, to get some solid polling post-debate.
Speaking of, if you’re looking for some coverage on the debate, be sure to read our overview here.
With 10,000 simulations:
HARRIS WINS 5586 (~56%)
TRUMP WINS 4336 (~43%)
NO WINNER 78 (<1%)
Harris is still favored, even if just slightly, in this very close election. Her odds of winning are very close to what they were yesterday.
There were only a few polls posted and added into our model. We did see several polls phase out of the model’s consideration.
Despite today’s slow movement, it’s possible that we will see some accelerated movement in the next 1-3 weeks. That’s partly because of changes in the model.
The core methodology is staying the same. However, the model may be updated to incorporate new priors (assumptions, if you will) throughout the election to account for major current events.
Two major current events just occurred. One is the Presidential Debate on September 10. The other is Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris.
Even in today’s hyper-partisan and hyper-polarized environment, a debate viewed by over 70 million people combined with the endorsement of one of the most well-known stars in the country may be enough to spur some movement in the polls – and likely in Harris’ direction.
The model will account for these in a very similar way as it did for the convention bounces. It will assume that the polls in the next 3 weeks have numbers for Harris that will decay and revert to the mean (i.e. go back down).
STATE RATING CHANGES (TODAY & UPCOMING)
Virginia: “Likely” Harris -> “Safe” Harris
Harris’ chances of winning Virginia are now well above 80% (right around 88%), bringing her odds safely past of the “Safe” threshold. It would be a huge upset if Trump managed to pull off a victory in this state.
For reference, Trump’s odds of winning Virginia are nearly what Harris’ odds are of winning Texas, which says a lot about both races.
Pennsylvania: “Lean” Harris -> “Toss-up”
For a state that is most likely to become the tipping-point state, this is bad news for Harris. In reality, her odds in Pennsylvania, despite the rating change, are only marginally lower than they were yesterday. Whereas she was just above a 55% chance of winning Pennsylvania according to our model yesterday, today she comes in at 54.57%. Anything between 45 and 55% in our model comes in as a “Toss-up”.
Of course, you’d still rather be Harris in Pennsylvania according to our model. That being said, she has slowly trended downward in this state over the past week or two. She’d do well to reverse that trend.
However, even if she does lose Pennsylvania, better polling in Nevada and North Carolina may ease her fears some as they can effectively provide those Electoral College votes she’d miss in Pennsylvania.
North Carolina: Still a toss-up
Two days ago, North Carolina saw Harris’ odds ever so slightly surpass 50% in the state. Slowly but surely, this toss-up is beginning to tilt further in her favor. Today, Harris sits at 50.87% in North Carolina.
Nevada: Still a toss-up, but almost “Lean” Harris
Harris sits at 54.67% in Nevada as of today’s run. Just a tiny bit more and she could earn a rating change in the state.
Michigan: Slowly tilting toward a “Toss-up”
In today’s model run, Harris fell just below 60% in Michigan. If she falls a few points further, the state could change from “Lean” Harris to “Toss-up”. This is a very important state for her to win, and Trump’s odds of winning could improve significantly if this state swings in his favor.
Weighted Polling Averages (National)
We will also be continuing to update the Weighted Polling Averages (National) for each candidate. Harris is maintaining about a 2.5% lead in the national polling as of today. This will be an important barometer of the race and whether or not it appears to tighten in the weeks ahead.
